Caution: In the words of Margaret Thatcher, “this is not the time to go wobbly.”

Prediction: Another self-styled expert (me) weighs in with an important political forecast. If the President and the Republican Party do not act very soon to do something about dealing with the following issues, any one of them may well prove to be the proverbial “camel’s nose under the tent” that could shift control of Congress to the Democrats.

• Overspending:  In an unscientific poll of a group of staunchly conservative seniors that I conducted, out of control spending was ranked as the nation’s number one problem. This was a group of men who have seen it all. Two-thirds of them are in their seventies and eighties, most have served the country honorably, either in WWII or Korea, including one who fought at the “Battle of the Bulge.” In ranking almost 20 issues, including immigration, the War on Terror and Iraq, controlling our spending was the problem they are most concerned about. People DO care about deficit spending, even if most of our politicians don’t. The effects of overspending play out over such a long period of time that the consequences are not always clear to the general public. But, as time passes, they become more apparent: high inflation caused by government actions, such as overspending and depreciating the currency by printing money to pay the bills, or price controls (which never work), over regulation, etc. All we need do is to look at what happened in Germany after WWI or Argentina during Peron’s leadership. If you think it can’t ever happen here, think again.
• Immigration:  Control of our borders, especially with Mexico: The public is clamoring for action. In spite of hundreds of thousands marching in the streets demanding their rights as immigrants, Americans are overwhelmingly in favor of stopping the tide of illegal immigration crossing our Southern border. Mexico’s Vicente Fox is clearly attempting to prevent the U.S. from taking aggressive action to stem the flow of illegals from his country, including offering advice to Mexican citizens about how to make the trip.
• Iraq War:  The drumbeat to withdraw from Iraq continues, with the American public about equally divided on the issue. However, it seems pretty clear that the majority of Americans want to see visible evidence that our commitment in Iraq will soon be winding down. If they don’t get it, I suspect the number of those who support the war effort will decline further. President Bush has been very firm in his resolve to see it through, but in an election year even many of those in his own party have been backing away from their earlier support for the war.
• Another terrorist strike:  Osama bin Laden, Mullah Omar, and al-Zarqawi remain at large. When, not if, but when there is another major terrorist strike on this country, the fact that we have not yet caught any of these three Islamic extremist leaders may well produce a visceral reaction by the public that will result in a transfer of political control of our government. When there is a major incident, people don’t necessarily stop to consider the consequences of change, they just demand new leadership.
• Homeland Defense:  Inspecting cargo at our ports, airlines, etc.: This situation recently dominated the news, accompanied by a high level of hysteria. When the United Arab Emirates backed off, things quieted down, but the problem has not gone away. The issue will very likely erupt again if there is any perceived failure to protect our borders. Another attack inside the United States will probably trigger a major reaction to the current administration’s policies and could easily result in a “throw the bums out” vote.
• Health Care:  The Medicare (Part D) Prescription Drug Bill could become a political disaster. It is so complex and difficult to understand that many seniors are not even willing to consider it. Whatever the arguments against national health care programs, the drug benefit that was created to help seniors is so confusing that it may well boomerang on the administration. Watch for the possibility that the bill will be significantly revised at some point because of the irritation and resentment of seniors when confronted with the complexity of the program, or the fact that it simply does not work as advertised. There are also a number of unfair provisions in the program, such as penalizing those who don’t sign up by May 15 of this year, the ability of providers to change their formulary on short notice, but no guarantees (even short term) of drug prices, etc. When these begin to affect enough seniors directly, it could conceivably cause sufficient dissatisfaction to change votes.
• Energy Prices and Independence:  It doesn’t seem to matter much who is in control of the administration or Congress when high oil prices impact the public, people scream and shout, demanding that our leaders do something about it.

If I were to handicap the potential causes of change in our political future, I would probably pick oil and gas prices. With politicians of every stripe demonizing the oil industry and failing to find long-term solutions for years on end, increased world demand has finally pushed prices up to the point that it is now front and center as a major issue in the current election cycle, conceivably THE major issue. So, look for politicians and special interest groups to demagogue the situation even more than usual trying to score political points. Remember the adage, in life, timing is everything.

In the final analysis, when catastrophic failure occurs, whatever the cause, when sufficiently aroused the American public usually votes for change. It won’t matter which issue turns out to be the Camel’s nose under the tent, and it may very well be some combination of more than one, or it could be some other issue, such as the “war on drugs,” education, etc.

The ancient Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times,” fits the situation in America today. If nothing else, we are certainly living in interesting times.

So many camels with such big noses trying to get into our tent. Which issue concerns you the most? If you respond to this column with your own ranking, I will be glad to tally the results and report back.

©2006 Harris R. Sherline, All Right Reserved